关键词: 全球变暖, 不确定性, 深时, 自然因素, 人类活动

Abstract:

Main factors that affect global warming are clarified to objectively evaluate the current causes and the uncertainties associated with global warming. Various climatic parameters, such as extreme weather events, paleo-atmospheric composition, and paleo-temperature during the “deep time” (pre-Quaternary) period as well as seven uncertainties with respect to the current global warming, are analyzed. It is necessary to analyze the climate change that has occurred since the Quaternary, especially the current global warming, from a holistic geological history process. In addition, the interaction among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, pedosphere, and lithosphere should be considered. The mutual coupling, cause-and-effect feedback, and multi-angle and multi-disciplinary techniques should be employed to analyze global warming. Furthermore, the solar activities, earth orbit changes, and other such extraterrestrial factors should be considered. Although human activities have a major impact on global warming, the contribution of natural factors should be quantified. Finally, various countermeasures and suggestions for CO2 reduction and for responding to the global warming situation in China are presented, and the importance of upholding the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” while engaging in international climate negotiations is highlighted.