Abstract:

Against the backdrop of China's transition to a sustained low-fertility regime, marriage—as the institutional foundation of childbearing—has drawn increasing attention for its role in shaping fertility patterns. This study employs microdata from four waves of China's population censuses (1990-2020) and applies a conditional decomposition method to estimate the structural contribution of marital status to changes in fertility levels among women of reproductive age. In addition, it incorporates provincial-level panel data to examine regional heterogeneity in the relationship between marriage and fertility. The results show that although the overall structure of marital status remained stable over the past three decades, the structural contribution of marital status to fertility change has increased significantly once age and education are controlled for. The effect is more pronounced in urban areas, though rural areas also display a steadily rising trend. Findings from provincial panel analyses further indicate that the explanatory power of marital status is closely associated with regional socioeconomic development, and that the interaction between shifts in marital structure and fertility norms varies across provinces.Theoretically, this study engages with the ongoing debate over the applicability of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory in the Chinese context. By foregrounding institutional and structural dimensions, this study extends global demographic theories to non-Western contexts and contributes to the construction of a localized theoretical framework for understanding Chinese fertility behaviors. It highlights the persistent misalignment between structural inertia and shifting fertility values, offering a new lens to explain the persistence of the lowest fertility rates in China.

Key words: fertility levels, marital status, social changes, decomposition