Chinese Journal of Sociology ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 87-112.

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The Higher the Education Level, the Later the Marriage? The Moderation Effect of Local Hukou in Urban Marriage Market

HE Guangye1, ZHANG Yao1, WU Xiaogang2   

  1. 1. Department of Sociology, Nanjing University;
    2. Center for Applied Social and Economic Research, New York University Shanghai;Department of Sociology, New York University
  • Published:2021-03-23
  • Supported by:
    The research is supported by the National Social Science Youth Fund under the project of " Gender Differences in Status Attainment and Career Mobility under the Perspective of Family" (17CRK024).

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Abstract: Across the globe, the higher the education level, the latter the marriage. However, in modern society, with the improvement in education and labor participation for both sexes, especially when the cost of living makes it difficult to support family by one income, the delaying effect of education level on marriage may have changed. This study suggests the possible moderating effect of local hukou(residential registration) as a symbol of financial advantage on the relation between education and marriage. Based on the data from the Shanghai Urban Neighborhood Survey, this paper attempts to answer three questions:1) Does a Shanghai hukou moderate the delaying effect of education on marriage timing? 2) If so, is there a gender difference of this moderation; 3) Does this moderation change overtime? The results of a discrete event history analysis show that the higher the education level, the more obvious its postponement effect on marriage, especially for women. Regardless of men and women, compared with individuals with Shanghai hukou, the delaying effect of education on marriage is much more prominent among people without Shanghai hukou. The study finds that at the early stage of the economic reform, there was no obvious moderation effect of a Shanghai hukou. However, with the continuous advancement of the reform, the postponement effect of education on marriage has become more and more prominent among groups without Shanghai hukou. Interestingly, the soaring price of housing since 2008 has led to a reversed relation between education and marriage timing among highly educated male Shanghai hukou holders. In comparison with their counter part of non-Shanghai hukou holders, not only no postponement but a certain early marriage effect is observed. The study concludes that the rapid rising cost of living and the widening gap in income and wealth have made hukou a primary factor in shaping marriage behaviors in contemporary urban China.

Key words: education, local hukou, first marriage timing, Shanghai, Discrete-time event history analysis