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集合种群与城市贫民窟研究

时培建   

  1. 江西农业大学农学院昆虫学研究所研究生
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-07-20 发布日期:2007-07-20

Metapopulation and the Study of Urban Slums

Shi Peijian   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-07-20 Published:2007-07-20

摘要:

集合种群是空间生态学的一个重要研究对象,集合种群理论是上个世纪下半叶兴起的一门重要的生态学理论。本文认为该理论对于研究城市贫民窟问题具有十分积极的指导意义,并对将集合种群研究方法用于城市贫民窟调查进行了初步探讨。本文利用北京市2006年所列的1978年到2005年的人口数据,将外来常住人口数量与常住人口数量的比值作为p值的近似值,采用Levins模型进行了拟合。拟合的结果显示了这种近似计算的合理性,同时还得到了侵占参数m和灭绝参数e,这样,就可以利用Levins模型对城市贫民窟居民的扩张进行分析、预测,因而这项研究具有现实意义。另外,本文还提供了在城市贫民窟研究中集合种群水平上的似Allee效应a的一种计算方法。

关键词: 集合种群, 城市贫民窟, 城市生态学, 似Allee效应

Abstract: Metapopulation is an important object for study in Spatial Ecology. The theory of Metapopulation, which took shape in the later part of the 20th century, is a very important ecological theory. This paper contends that the theory of Metapopulation can guide studies of urban slums. It also discusses how to apply the theory to such studies. The Levins model was applied to fit a group of computed numbers based on the 1978-2005 population data from the 2006 Beijing yearbook. The computed numbers were the ratios of the migrants in Beijing by the natives in Beijing from 1978 to 2005, approximating the p values in the different years. The resulting fitting curve was satisfying, confirming the reasonableness in treating such ratios as approximate p values. Furthermore, the invading parameter of m and the exterminating parameter of e were both obtained, making it possible to take the Levins model to analyze, predict, and study the dynamics of the poor people living in urban slums. Lastly, a new method of computing a value, which is an important constant in the Allee-like effect when studying urban slums at the Metapopulation level, is explained in the paper.

Key words:

Metapopulation, urban slums, urban ecology, Allee-like effect