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流动人口对城市产业结构升级影响的实证研究——以宁波市为例

周昌林;魏建良   

  1. 复旦大学应用经济学博士后流动站 博士后 研究员;
    南京大学工程管理学院 博士研究生
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-07-20 发布日期:2007-07-20

An Empirical Study of Floating Populations’ Influences on the Urban Industrial Structure Improvement – The Example of City Ningbo

Zhou Changlin ;Wei Jianliang   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-07-20 Published:2007-07-20

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摘要：

本文通过定量分析发现，人口结构水平上升1%，就能使产业结构水平提高5.12%。流动人口在支撑城市经济快速增长的同时，通过拉低城市人口结构水平曲线、延缓城市人口结构提升速度，对城市产业结构的升级产生了抑制。本文对此的解释是：流动人口产生的资本替代效应削弱了企业创新动力，流动人口知识、技术、技能积累不足制约了企业技术进步，流动人口消费能力偏低维持了城市低端产业的生存空间，三方面的共同作用抑制了城市产业结构的升级。

关键词: 流动人口, 人口结构水平, 产业结构升级, 实证研究

Abstract: The quantitative analysis of Ningbo data led to the following finding: With the level of population structure raised by one percent, the level of industrial structure would be improved by 5.12 percent. While floating populations could provide support for a rapidly rising urban economy, they might at the same time hold back the growth of urban industrial structure because they could pull down the level of the urban population structure, thus reducing the speed of its escalation. This paper offers three explanations, namely, the capital substitute effect from floating populations can weaken enterprises’ initiative creativity; the lack of knowledge and skills of floating populations can hinder enterprises’ advances in technology; and the low consuming power of floating populations can help sustain the space for the survival of the industries on the low end.

Key words: floating population, level of population structure, industrial structure improvement, empirical study