社会杂志 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 184-199.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

An Empirical Analysis of Carbon Emission in the Household Comsumption Peak Period in China〖JP〗

作者1：陈佳瑛  复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院； 作者2：彭希哲 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院.   

  1. 作者1：陈佳瑛  复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院； 作者2：彭希哲 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院）
  • 出版日期:2011-05-20 发布日期:2011-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 陈佳瑛 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院.  E-mail:chencatherine@163.com
  • 作者简介:作者1：陈佳瑛 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院; 作者2：彭希哲 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院） 
  • 基金资助:

    This research was supported by the Soft Science Program of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality and Innovation Foundation of Fudan University（201006017）.

An Empirical Analysis of Carbon Emission in the Household Comsumption Peak Period in China.

Author 1： Chen Jiaying， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University ； Author 2：Peng Xizhe， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University .   

  1. Author 1： Chen Jiaying， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University ； Author 2：Peng Xizhe， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University . 
  • Online:2011-05-20 Published:2011-05-20
  • Contact: Chen Jiaying， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University . E-mail:chencatherine@163.com
  • About author:Author 1： Chen Jiaying， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University; Author 2：Peng Xizhe， School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University .
  • Supported by:

    This research was supported by the Soft Science Program of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality and Innovation Foundation of Fudan University（201006017）.

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摘要：

本文将家庭消费高峰期因素纳入，试探讨家庭消费结构变化对于中国碳排放量的影响。根据家庭生命周期理论在消费领域的相关研究，本文以家庭成员在40〖CD*2〗54岁年龄段可能存在更多消费为假设，在修正了STIRPAT环境压力模型的基础上，用“家庭户碳排放模型”分析了家庭消费阶段差异对碳排放变化的影响；同时，采用情景分析方法，对未来家庭消费高峰期变化对碳排放的可能影响做了预测分析。

关键词: 40-54岁家庭消费高峰段, 碳排放, 家庭户模型

Abstract:

This paper takes the factor of household consumption peak period into consideration and analyzes the impact of the structural changes in household consumption on carbon emissions in China. Based on the studies using the family life cycle theory in the consumption field, this paper assumes that household members aged 40-54 years consume the most. Having the STIRPAT model modified in terms of environmental pressure, this paper applies the “household carbon emission model” to the analysis of the impact of the differences in household consumption in different stages of the family cycle on carbon emissions. Furthermore, the paper uses the method of scenario analysis to predict the possible impact of future changes in the household consumption peak period on carbon emissions. 

Key words: 40-54 year old people whose household consumption reaches a peak, carbon emissions, household model