社会杂志 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 46-78.

• 专题：国家治理与社会治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术治理的悖论:一项民意调查的政治过程及其结果

彭亚平   

  1. 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院、公共政策与治理创新研究中心
  • 出版日期:2018-05-20 发布日期:2018-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 彭亚平 E-mail:yaping.peng@163.com

The Paradox of Technical Governance: A Public Opinion Survey's Political Process and Its Results

PENG Yaping   

  1. School of International and Public Affairs, Research Center of Public Policy and Governance Innovation, Shanghai Jiaotong University
  • Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-20

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摘要：

技术治理的逻辑是通过识别和处理源源不断的问题进而把社会呈现在国家面前。它能够完成其使命吗？本文以S市C街道2014年至2016年的连续民意调查为经验对象，系统阐述民意调查为何表面上是一个统计学过程，实质却是由权力运行支配的政治过程。分析表明，在将复杂民意化简成民调数据时，技术只能保证化简程序的严谨性，化简方向则由操作者决定。民调项目的规定性源自基层权力结构，又被转移到对复杂民意的筛选、压缩和量化过程之中，生成指标体系。据此，本文揭示了技术治理的悖论——国家通过技术之眼观察社会时，看到的可能是自己的影子。

关键词: 技术治理, 权力运作, 民意调查, 复杂性化简

Abstract:

The logic of technical governance goes as follows:the knowledge of society can be obtained by the state via technology and thus social problems are identified and resolution are found. Questions have been raised about whether technical governance would ever work. For many the answer is negative and doubtful. However,one defense remains:technical governance fails not because the idea is inherently flawed but because the technology is not good. Would technical governance succeed with better methodology and more technical rigor? In order to challenge this defense,this paper examines the operation of opinion polls-a form of technical governance supported by rigorous quantitative social research methodology-run by a sub-district government in the city "S". In particular,this paper asks whether it is possible for a government-run poll to reflect manipulated public opinions,despite the strictest compliance with quantitative polling methodology. The finding of this paper gives an affirmative answer. It argues that on the surface polls are statistic surveys but in actuality they are a political process controlled by the government despite their compliance with all statistical requirements. The power structure of the local government determines the questionnaire questions and their multiple-choice answers (the screening,compressing and quantifying of social scenarios),and the final make-up of public opinion index. The rigorousness of methodology does not guarantee the authenticity of "public opinion" in final poll figures. More likely the outcome is controlled by those who organize polls. Hence,quantifiable technical governance presents contradiction:the state manufactures biased public opinions precisely when it is looking for unbiased public opinions. In the end,the government constructs an image of society in its own reflection.

Key words: opinion polls, power operation, technical governance, simplification