社会杂志 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 182-213.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

大学生毕业意向的影响机制及变迁趋势：基于十年历时调查数据的实证考察

闵尊涛1, 陈云松1,2, 王修晓3   

  1. 1. 南京大学社会学系;
    2. 南京大学-约翰斯·霍普金斯大学中美文化研究中心;
    3. 中央财经大学社会学系
  • 出版日期:2018-09-20 发布日期:2018-09-20
  • 作者简介:闵尊涛,E-mail:minzuntao2012@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    本文受以下基金和项目资助：国家社科基金一般项目（16BSH011、13CSH085）；北京哲社基金一般项目（15SHB027）；教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目（14JJD840001）；教育部来华留学英文授课品牌课程和中央财经大学研究生院优质英文课程建设项目“中国经济与社会”；中央财经大学社会与心理学院学科推进计划；中央财经大学“中财121人才工程”青年博士发展基金（QBJZH201011）。

An Empirical Study on the Influencing Mechanism of Undergraduate Graduation Planning and Its Trends: Based on a Ten-year Survey Data

MIN Zuntao1, CHEN Yunsong1,2, WANG Xiuxiao3   

  1. 1. Department of Sociology, Nanjing University;
    2. Hopinks Nanjing Center, Department of Sociology;
    3. Department of Sociology, Central University of Finance and Economics
  • Online:2018-09-20 Published:2018-09-20
  • Supported by:

    This study is supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 16BSH011 & No. 13CSH085),the Beijing Philosophy and Social Science Foundation (No. 15SHB027), Major Project of Humanity and Social Sciences Key Research Institute of the Ministry of Education (No. 14JJD840001), English-taught Brand Course for International Students of the Ministry of Education and Excellent English-taught Graduate Course of Central University of Finance and Economics (Economy and Society in Contemporary China), Disciplinary Advancement Plan of School of Sociology and Psychology at Central University of Finance and Economics,121 Talent Projectand Young Ph.D. Development Foundation of Central University of Finance and Economics(No. QBJZH201011).

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摘要：

通过分析十年历时调查数据，本文探讨了大学生毕业意向的影响因素和时代变迁规律。研究表明，学业表现、家庭背景和宏观环境对大学生升学意愿均有显著影响，个体学业表现的作用最为微弱，家庭背景的优势主要体现在国外留学选择上，在毕业规划方面宏观环境起着重要作用。通过交互分析发现，家庭背景对选择深造，尤其是留学的作用会随着学业表现提高而增强；十年中，家庭背景主导作用和学业表现微弱作用均保持相对稳定。宏观层次的研究生教育自费政策对当年大学生深造意向有显著负向影响，而高校毕业生增长趋势对个体深造意向有显著正向作用。本文证实了“大学教育后”教育机会分配仍然体现的是一种社会再生产逻辑，中国过去十年高等教育领域的转型背景对个体的毕业规划也产生了重要影响。本文有助于完整理解十年来大学生毕业意向的变化轨迹和规律，以及接受高等教育后的教育分层。

关键词: 家庭背景, 宏观变量, 毕业意向, 学业表现, 教育再生产

Abstract:

Most existing studies on educational stratification focus mainly on social stratification prior to the entry of higher education. Little attention is paid to the stratification process that continues during college education. This study investigates the factors impacting graduation plans of undergraduates at a Beijing key university during a ten-year period from 2007 to 2016. Findings show that post-graduation choices are positively influenced by academic performance, family background and macrosocial factors:(1) Academic performance is the weakest link in predicting a student's decision to pursue graduate study; (2) Family background has a decisive impact on pursuing graduate study abroad, much more significant than academic performance or macrosocial factors; (3) Macrosocial factors are an important predictor for graduates' career plans.A series of interaction analysis between core independent variables yields conclusion that the impact of family background in choosing graduate education, especially study abroad, increases when academic performance scores high. The findings on family background and academic performance constitute a consistent trend for the ten-year period. The 2013 Graduate Education Tuition Reform Policy increased tuition fees for graduate study and the enrolment suffered that year. By the same token, the fast-increasing number of college graduates encourages further graduate study as a way of postponing job seeking. In sum, this study strongly confirms that the distribution of post baccalaureate education opportunities reflects the reproduction of social stratification. At the same time, the transitional nature of Chinese higher education during the past decade also has an important impact on individual graduation planning.

Key words: family background, academic performance, macro factors, commencement planning, educational reproduction