社会杂志 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 183-209.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

主观变量解释主观变量:方法论辨析

胡安宁   

  1. 复旦大学社会学系
  • 出版日期:2019-05-20 发布日期:2019-05-20
  • 作者简介:胡安宁,E-mail:huanning@fudan.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    本文得到复旦大学文科“双一流”建设项目人文社科一流创新团队（IDH3458007）、中组部万人计划青年拔尖人才项目和上海市教育委员会“曙光计划”项目（17SG08）的资助。

Explaining One Subjective Variable with Another: A Methodological Clarification

HU Anning   

  1. Department of Sociology, Fudan University
  • Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-20
  • Supported by:

    This study was supported by the Fudan First-Class Research Group Funding (IDH 3458007) and the National Youth Talent Support Program, and the Shuguang Scholar Project of the Shanghai Education Committee (17SG08).

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摘要：

社会学经验研究经常会需要处理诸如态度、感受、偏好这样的主观变量，无论从理论上还是方法上，对特定主观变量的理解往往会涉及另外一个主观变量。尽管如此，在具体的研究实践中，社会学者往往对“主观解释主观”的分析进路持有相当程度的保留态度，从而尽可能地采用客观变量来解释主观变量，或者探究主观变量对于客观变量的影响。“主观解释主观”的分析进路究竟有什么方法论上的“缺陷”?更为重要的是，采用什么手段可以尽可能避免这些“缺陷”以拓宽研究者的经验解释能力?这些问题到目前为止都还缺乏系统研究。在此背景下，本文考察了“主观解释主观”的分析进路所存在的混淆偏误问题，并从理论论辩、变量测量和数据分析三个方面讨论了一系列的应对策略。针对每一个应对策略，本文展示了经验实例，并对该策略的优缺点和适用情况进行了剖析和对比。此外，本文也具体分析了诸如因果关系方向、判断混淆偏误的敏感性检验、测量误差等未尽议题。本文希望通过这些讨论能增强社会学解释路径的多样性，促进社会学与其他学科（例如心理学、政治学等）的交流与互鉴。

关键词: 固定效应, 混淆效应, 主观变量, 心理机制

Abstract:

Sociological studies have rich subjective variables such as attitudes, perceptions, and preferences, and explanations of this type of variables often call for some more subjective variables. Empirical sociologists often have concerns about this approach of "subjective variable explaining subjective variable" in their empirical studies. Thus far, it is still not clear what kind of shortcomings the approach of "subjective variable explaining subjective variable" has, and more importantly, how to handle these concerns in order to enhance empirical explanations. Against this background, this study investigates the potential confounding bias in the "subjective variable explaining subjective variable" approach, and presents three strategies of theoretical reasoning, variable measurement, and data analysis in dealing with the issues. For each strategy, this article provides examples and discusses its advantages and limitations. Some unsolved issues, such as the direction of causation, the sensitivity analysis, and the measurement error, are also explored here. This study intends to bring in more diversity of sociological approaches and enhance the interdis-ciplinary collaboration (e.g., with psychology and political sciences).

Key words: psychological mechanisms, confounding bias, fixed effects, subjective variables