流动模式与农民工婚姻稳定性研究:基于性别和世代的视角

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于广州2016年的“农民工社会融合与婚姻家庭调查”数据，本文从性别和世代的角度系统探讨了农民工的婚姻稳定性问题。分析结果表明，新生代农民工的婚姻稳定性显著低于第一代农民工，女性农民工婚姻稳定性低于男性农民工，且新生代女性农民工婚姻稳定性最低。流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性具有显著影响，且这种影响存在性别和世代差异，其中流动模式形塑着农民工的婚姻收益和离婚阻力，流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性的影响，同时又受到具体的性别效应和世代效应的共同影响，其中的脆弱性差异机制可以解释流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性影响的性别效应和世代效应。

关键词: 婚姻稳定性, 农民工, 人口流动, 性别, 世代

Abstract: The data for this study come from "Social Integration, Marriage and Family Survey in Guangzhou" in 2016. The study investigates the influence of migration pattern on marriage stability among migrant workers from the perspective of gender and cohort. The findings reveal significant cohort and gender differences in marriage stability among migrant workers with younger generation exhibiting higher instability than older generation, females than their male counterparts, and female young generation scoring the highest in marriage break up. Migration pattern has significant effects on marital instability but the impact differs in gender and cohort. Marriages of the first-generation migrants appear to be little affected by inter-provincial migration.Nevertheless, migration without spouse seems to have some impact on the marriage stability of first-generation female migrants butits most significant influence is on young female migrants. Both mediation and moderation analysis show that between migration with or without spouse, marital satisfaction acts as a mediation variable among female young generation but as a moderation variable among all male migrants. In terms of the relationship between inter-provincial migration and marriage stability, marital satisfaction has moderating effect among all female migrant workers but not male migrants. This study shows that migration pattern exerts significant but different influences on marriage stability among migrants of different gender and cohort.

Key words: marriage stability, migrant worker, population migration, gender, cohort

李卫东. 流动模式与农民工婚姻稳定性研究:基于性别和世代的视角[J]. 社会杂志, 2019, 39(6): 23-61.

LI Weidong. Migration Pattern and Marriage Instability among Migrant Workers: From a Gender and Cohort Perspective[J]. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 2019, 39(6): 23-61.

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