流动模式与农民工婚姻稳定性研究:基于性别和世代的视角

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于广州2016年的“农民工社会融合与婚姻家庭调查”数据，本文从性别和世代的角度系统探讨了农民工的婚姻稳定性问题。分析结果表明，新生代农民工的婚姻稳定性显著低于第一代农民工，女性农民工婚姻稳定性低于男性农民工，且新生代女性农民工婚姻稳定性最低。流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性具有显著影响，且这种影响存在性别和世代差异，其中流动模式形塑着农民工的婚姻收益和离婚阻力，流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性的影响，同时又受到具体的性别效应和世代效应的共同影响，其中的脆弱性差异机制可以解释流动模式对农民工婚姻稳定性影响的性别效应和世代效应。

关键词: 婚姻稳定性, 农民工, 人口流动, 性别, 世代

Abstract: The data for this study come from "Social Integration, Marriage and Family Survey in Guangzhou" in 2016. The study investigates the influence of migration pattern on marriage stability among migrant workers from the perspective of gender and cohort. The findings reveal significant cohort and gender differences in marriage stability among migrant workers with younger generation exhibiting higher instability than older generation, females than their male counterparts, and female young generation scoring the highest in marriage break up. Migration pattern has significant effects on marital instability but the impact differs in gender and cohort. Marriages of the first-generation migrants appear to be little affected by inter-provincial migration.Nevertheless, migration without spouse seems to have some impact on the marriage stability of first-generation female migrants butits most significant influence is on young female migrants. Both mediation and moderation analysis show that between migration with or without spouse, marital satisfaction acts as a mediation variable among female young generation but as a moderation variable among all male migrants. In terms of the relationship between inter-provincial migration and marriage stability, marital satisfaction has moderating effect among all female migrant workers but not male migrants. This study shows that migration pattern exerts significant but different influences on marriage stability among migrants of different gender and cohort.

Key words: marriage stability, migrant worker, population migration, gender, cohort

李卫东. 流动模式与农民工婚姻稳定性研究:基于性别和世代的视角[J]. 社会杂志, 2019, 39(6): 23-61.

LI Weidong. Migration Pattern and Marriage Instability among Migrant Workers: From a Gender and Cohort Perspective[J]. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 2019, 39(6): 23-61.

参考文献

曹锐.2010.新生代农民工婚恋模式初探[J].南方人口(5):53-59.
杜凤莲. 2010. 中国城乡劳动力流动对婚姻稳定性的影响[J].经济社会体制比较 (5):105-111.
杜平.2016. 男工.女工:当代中国农民工的性别、家庭与迁移[M].香港中文大学出版社.
杜平.2019. 家庭纽带与权力博弈:南中国乡城迁移中夫妻性别秩序的重塑[R].中国社会学年会会议论文.
高梦滔.2011. 农村离婚率与外出就业:基于中国2003-2009年村庄面板数据的研究[J]. 世界经济(10):55-69.
胡安宁. 2019.主观变量解释主观变量:方法论辨析[J]. 社会 39(3):183-209.
李卫东. 2017.农民工婚姻稳定性研究:基于代际、迁移和性别的视角[J].中国青年研究(7):74-81.
李卫东. 2018.人口流动背景下农民工婚姻稳定性的影响因素分析[J].人口与发展(6):39-49.
李卫东、李树茁、费尔德曼. 2013. 性别失衡背景下农民工心理失范的性别差异研究[J].社会 33(3):65-88.
刘传江、徐建玲.2006."民工潮"与"民工荒"——农民工劳动供给行为视角的经济学分析[J].财经问题研究(5):73-80.
马忠东、石智雷. 2017.流动过程影响婚姻稳定性研究[J].人口研究 (1):70-83.
莫玮俏、史晋川. 2015. 农村人口流动对离婚率的影响[J].中国人口科学 (5):104-112.
田丰.2009.改革开放的孩子们:中国"70后"和"80后"青年的公平感和民主意识研究[J].青年研究 (6):1-10.
王春光.2001.新生代农村流动人口的社会认同与城乡融合的关系[J].社会学研究 (3):63-76.
王嘉顺.2010.区域差异背景下的城市居民对外来人口迁入的态度研究:基于2005年全国综合社会调查数据[J].社会 30(6):156-174.
王文松.2010.新生代农民工的特征、心理特点及应对措施[J].农村经济与科技 (5):55-56.
吴新慧.2011.传统与现代之间:新生代农民工的恋爱与婚姻[J].中国青年研究 (1):15-19
叶文振、林擎国.1998. 当代中国离婚态势和原因分析[J].人口与经济 (3):22-28.
叶文振、徐安琪.1999.中国婚姻的稳定性及其影响因素[J].中国人口科学 (7):7-12.
张春泥. 2011. 农民工为何频繁变换工作——户籍制度下农民工的工作流动研究[J]. 社会 31(6):153-177.
张展新.2007.从城乡分割到区域分割:城市外来人口研究新视角[J].人口研究(6):16-24.
Ackerman, C. Affiliations.1963. "Structural Determinants of Differential Divorce Rates." American Journal of Sociology 69(1):13-20.
Amato,Paul R. and Alan Booth. 1995. "Changes in Gender Role Attitudes and Perceived Marital Quality." American Sociological Review 60(1):58-66.
Becker,Gary S. 1981. A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press.
Black,Leora E.,Matthew M. Eastwood,Douglas H. Sprenkle, and Elaine Smith. 1991. "An Exploratory Analysis of the Construct of Leavers versus Left as It Relates to Levinger' Social Exchange Theory of Attractions,Barriers,and Alternative Attractions." Journal of Divorce and Remarriage 15(1-2):127-139.
Booth,Alan, David R. Johnson,and Lynn K. White. 1986. "Divorce and Marital Instability over the Life Course." Journal of Family Issues 7(4):421-442.
Booth,Alan and John N. Edwards. 1985. "Age at Marriage and Marital Instability." Journal of Marriage and Family 47 (1):67-75.
Booth,Alan,John N. Edwards,and David R. Johnson. 1991. "Social Integration and Divorce." Social Forces 70(1):207-224.
Boyle Paul J.,Hill Kulu,Thomas Cooke,Vernon Gayle,and Clara H. Mulder. 2008."Moving and Union Dissolution." Demography 45(1):209-222.
Bradbury,Thomas N.,Frank D. Fincham,and Steven R. H. Beach. 2000."Research on the Nature and Determinants of Marital Satisfaction:A Decade in Review."Journal of Marriage and the Family 62(4):964-980.
Caarls,Kim and Valentina Mazzucato. 2015. "Does International Migration Lead to Divorce? Ghanaian Couples in Ghana and Abroad." Population 70(1):127-150.
Charsley,Katharine. 2005. "Unhappy Husbands:Masculinity and Migration in Transnational Pakistani Marriages." Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute 11(1):85-105.
Cherlin,Andrew J. 1992.Marriage,Divorce,Remarriage. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press.
Cooke,Lynn Prince and Vanessa Gash. 2010. "Wives' Part-time Employment and Marital Stability in Great Britain, West Germany and the United States."Sociology 44(6):1091-1108.
Elder Glen H.,Monica Kirkpatrik Johnson,and Robert Crosnoe. 2003. "The Emergence and Development of Life Course Theory." In Handbook of the Life Course,edtied by Jeylan T. Mortimer and Michael J. Shanahan. Boston,MA:Springer.
Foner,Nancy. 1999."Immigrant Women and Work in New York City,Then and Now."Journal of American Ethnic History 18(3):95-113.
Frank,Reanne and Elizabeth Wildsmith. 2005. "The Grass Widows of Mexico:Migration and Union Dissolution in a Binational Context." Social Forces 83(3):919-947.
Fridkis,Ari Lloyd. 1981. "Desertion in the American Jewish Immigrant Family:The Work of the National Desertion Bureau in Cooperation with the Industrial Removal Office." American Jewish History 71(2):285-299.
Friedman,Reena Sigman. 1982. "Send Me My Husband Who Is In New York City:Husband Desertion in the American Jewish Immigrant Community 1900-1926." Jewish Social Studies 44(1):1-18.
Gadassi,Reuma,Lior Eadan Bar-Nahum,Sarah Newhouse,Ragnar Anderson,Julia R. Heiman,Eshkol Rafaeli,and Erick Janssen. 2016. "Perceived Partner Responsiveness Mediates the Association Between Sexual and Marital Satisfaction:A Daily Diary Study in Newlywed Couples." Archives of Sexual Behavior 45(1):109-120.
Gallo,Ester. 2006."Italy is not a Good Place for Men:Narratives of Places,Marriage and Masculinity among Malayali Migrants." Global Networks 6(4):357-372.
George,Sheba. 2000." ‘Dirty Nurses’ and ‘Man Who Play’:Gender and Class in Transnational Migration."In Global Ethnography:Forces,Connections and Imaginations in a Postmodern World, edited by M. Burawoy. Berkeley,CA:University of California Press.
Gilligan,Carol. 1982. In a Different Voice:Psychological Theory and Women's Development. Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press.
Glenn,Norval D. 1991."Quantitative Research on Marital Quality in the 1980s:A Critical Review."In Contemporary Families:Looking forward,Looking back,edited by Alan Booth. Minneapolis,MN:National Council on Family Relations.
Grasmuck,Sherri and Patricia R. Pessar.1991. Between Two Islands:Dominican International Migration.Berkeley,CA:University of California Press.
Guttentag,Marcia and Paul F. Secord. 1983. Too Many Women? The Sex Ratio Question. Beverly Hills:Sage Publications.
Heaton,Tim B. and Stan L.Albrecht. 1991. "Stable Unhappy Marriages." Journal of Marriage and Family 53 (3):747-758.
Hill,E. Jeffrey,David B. Allsop, Ashley B. LeBaron,and Roy A. Bean.2017."How Do Money,Sex,and Stress Influence Marital Instability?"Journal of Financial Therapy 8(1):21-41.
Hill,Laura E. 2004."Connections Between U.S. Female Migration and Family Formation and Dissolution." Migraciones Internacionales 2(3):60-82.
Hirsch,Jennifer S. 1999. "En el Norte la Mujer Manda:Gender,Generation,and Geography in a Mexican Transnational Community." American Behavioral Scientist 42(9):1332-1349.
Hirsch,Jennifer S. 2003. A Courtship after Marriage:Sexuality and Love in Mexican Transnational Families. Berkeley,CA:University of California Press.
Hondagneu-Sotelo,Pierrette.1994. Gendered Transitions:Mexican Experiences of Immigration.Berkeley,CA:University of California Press.
Ickes,William and Mary A. Layden. 1978. "Attributional Styles."In New Directions in Attribution Research(Vol. 2), edited by J. H. Harvey,W. J. Ickes,and R. F. Kidd. Hillsdale,NJ:Erlbaum:119-192.
Kessler,Ronald C. and Jane D. McLeod.1984."Sex Differences in Vulnerability to Life Events." American Sociological Review 49(5):620-631.
Landale,Nancy S. and Nimfa B. Ogena. 1995. "Migration and Union Dissolution among Puerto Rican Women." International Migration Review 29(3):671-692.
Levinger,George. 1965. "Marital Cohesiveness and Dissolution:An Integrative Review." Journal of Marriage and the Family (27):19-28.
Levinger, George. 1976. "A Socio-Pyschological Perspective on Marital Dissolution." Journal of Social Issues (32):21-47.
Lewin,Kurt. 1951. Field Theory in Social Science. New York:Harper.
Li,Weidong.2018. "Migration and Marital Instability among Migrant Workers in China:Based on Gender Perspective." Chinese Journal of Sociology 4(2):218-235.
Li,Weidong,Shuzhuo Li,and Marcus W. Feldman. 2015. "Gender Differences in Anomie among China's Rural Migrant Workers in the Context of Gender Imbalance and Population Migration." Chinese Journal of Sociology 1(4):605-624.
Ma,Laurence J. C. and Yehua Dennis Wei.1997."Determinants of State Investment in China,1953-1990."Journal of Economic and Social Geography 88(3):211-225.
Manuh, T.1999. "‘This Place is not Ghana’:Gender and Rights Discourse among Ghanaian Men and Women in Toronto."Ghana Studies (2):77-95.
McRae,James A.,Jr. and Charles J. Brody. 1989. "The Differential Importance of Marital Experiences for the Well-Being of Women and Men:A Research Note." Social Science Research 18(3):237-248.
Milewski,Nadja and Hill Kulu. 2014. "Mixed Marriages in Germany:A High Risk of Divorcefor Immigrant-Native Couples." European Journal of Population 30(1):89-113.
Oppenheimer,Valerie Kincade. 1997. "Women's Employment and the Gain to Marriage:The Specialization and Trading Model." Annual Reviews Sociology (23):431-453.
Parsons,Talcott. 1955. "The American Family:Its Relation to Personality and to Social Structure." In Family, Socialization and Interaction Process,edited by Talcott Parsons and Robert F. The Bales. Free Press.
Parsons,Talcott. 1959. "The Social Structure of the Family."In The Family:Its Function and Destiny,edited by Ruth N. Anshen. Harper:241-273.
Phillips,Julie A.and Megan M. Sweeney. 2006. "Can Differential Exposure to Risk Factors Explain Recent Racial and Ethnic Variation in Marital Disruption." Social Science Research 35(2):409-434.
Previti,Denise and Paul R. Amato.2003. "Why Stay Married? Rewards,Barriers,and Marital Stability." Journal of Marriage and Family 65(3):561-573.
Repak,Terry A.1995. Waiting on Washington:Central American Workers in the Nation's Capital.Philadelphia, PA:Temple University Press.
Salgado de Snyder,V. Nelly. 1993."Family Life across the Border:Mexican Wives Left Behind." Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences 42(2):391-401.
Sayer,Liana C. and Suzanne M. Bianchi. 2000. "Women's Economic Independence and the Probability of Divorce:A Review and Reexamination."Journal of Family Issues 21(7):906-943.
South,Scott J. 2001. "Time-Dependent Effects of Wives' Employment on Marital Dissolution." American Sociological Review 66(2):226-245.
South,Scott J. and Glenna Spitze.1986. "Determinants of Divorce over the Life Course."American Sociological Review 51(4):583-590.
South, Scott J.,Katherine Trent,and Yang Shen. 2001."Changing Partners:Toward a Macrostructural-Opportunity Theory of Marital Dissolution." Journal of Marriage and the Family 63(3):743-754.
South, Scott J.and Kim M. Lloyd. 1995."Spousal Alternatives and Marital Dissolution."American Sociological Review 60(1):21-35.
Thibaut,John W. and H. H. Kelley.1959.The Social Psychology of Groups. New York:Wiley.
Zontini,Elisabetta.2010.Transnational Families,Migration and Gender,Moroccan,and Filipino Women in Bologna and Barcelona.New York:Berghahn Books.

[1]	石智雷. 区域文化对婚姻稳定性的影响:基于跨省流动人口的研究[J]. 社会杂志, 2020, 40(1): 213-242.
[2]	程文侠, 李慧. 革命目标的裂变与群众路线的转向:1940年代中共妇女政策的温和化[J]. 社会杂志, 2019, 39(3): 210-240.
[3]	魏万青, 高伟. 同乡网络的另一幅脸孔:雇主—工人同乡关系对劳工个体权益的影响[J]. 社会杂志, 2019, 39(2): 160-185.
[4]	孙晓冬. 收入如何影响中国夫妻的家务劳动分工？[J]. 社会杂志, 2018, 38(5): 214-240.
[5]	郭未, 鲁佳莹. 性别视角下的“农转非”路径及其收入回报:基于CGSS2008—2013数据的实证研究[J]. 社会杂志, 2018, 38(3): 105-135.
[6]	贺光烨. 专业选择与初职获得的性别差异:基于“首都大学生成长追踪调查”的发现[J]. 社会杂志, 2018, 38(2): 213-241.
[7]	闫伯汉. 乡城流动与儿童认知发展:基于2012年中国城镇化与劳动移民调查数据的分析[J]. 社会杂志, 2017, 37(4): 59-89.
[8]	吴菲, 王俊秀. 相对收入与主观幸福感:检验农民工的多重参照群体[J]. 社会杂志, 2017, 37(2): 74-105.
[9]	郑莉, 曾旭晖. 社会分层与健康不平等的性别差异:基于生命历程的纵向分析[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(6): 209-237.
[10]	郭秋菊, 靳小怡. 农民工的母亲对子女重大决策的影响研究[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(5): 222-241.
[11]	庄家炽, 刘爱玉, 孙超. 网络空间性别不平等的再生产:互联网工资溢价效应的性别差异——以第三期妇女地位调查为例[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(5): 88-106.
[12]	朱依娜, 何光喜. 学术产出的性别差异:一个社会网络分析的视角[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(4): 76-102.
[13]	许琪, 戚晶晶. 工作-家庭冲突、性别角色与工作满意度——基于第三期中国妇女社会地位调查的实证研究[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(3): 192-215.
[14]	杨可. 劳工宿舍的另一种可能:作为现代文明教化空间的民国模范劳工宿舍[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(2): 58-76.
[15]	吴开泽. 生命历程视角的城市居民二套房获得[J]. 社会杂志, 2016, 36(1): 213-240.