关键词: 家庭政策, 生育效应, 现金补贴, 托幼服务

Abstract: From the 2009-2014 OECD Household Expenditure Database and the 2014 European Social Survey Database，this study generates a new set of integrated macro and micro data（non-longitudinal）. A multi-level binomial regression model is applied to explore the impact of macro-family policies on micro-fertility decision-making in fifteen European countries. Our research emphasizes the importance of theoretical perspective and focuses on the specific policy measures that are related to the two distinctively different policy values of “family-oriented” and “de-family-oriented”. The empirical results find that the“de-family-oriented” childcare services have a significant positive impact on the birth decisions of European families，while the“family-oriented” cash subsidies have not produced the expected significant effect. This study further examines the differential impact of family policies on different groups of people，focusing on the effects of gender，age，education，and income. The results reveal that couples of younger age or higher incomes are most affected on birth decisions by childcare services. This study also verifies the robustness of the data and introduces into the model additional variables such as the allocation ratio of childcare services and cash subsidies，their proportion in GDP，and paid leave. It reveals that childcare services and paid maternity leave form a policy synergy in promoting family reproductive decision-making to a certain extent. This suggests that the effectiveness of European family policy for promoting fertility lies on the changes in service delivery of childcare，rather than on direct cash subsidy. There is a policy implication for China’s future family policy. Our future emphasis should be placed on the institutional design and resource investment in infant and child care services.

Key words: family policy, fertility effect, cash subsidy, childcare service