社会杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 87-112.

• 专题一：家庭与婚姻观念的变迁与实践 • 上一篇    下一篇

教育程度越高，结婚就越晚吗？婚姻市场上本地户口的调节作用

贺光烨1, 张瑶1, 吴晓刚2   

  1. 1. 南京大学社会学院;
    2. 上海纽约大学应用社会经济研究中心, 纽约大学社会学系
  • 发布日期:2021-03-23
  • 作者简介:贺光烨,E-mail:hgy.gloria@nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家社会科学基金青年项目“家庭视角下的劳动力市场地位获得和职业流动的性别差异研究”（17CRK024）的支持。

The Higher the Education Level, the Later the Marriage? The Moderation Effect of Local Hukou in Urban Marriage Market

HE Guangye1, ZHANG Yao1, WU Xiaogang2   

  1. 1. Department of Sociology, Nanjing University;
    2. Center for Applied Social and Economic Research, New York University Shanghai;Department of Sociology, New York University
  • Published:2021-03-23
  • Supported by:
    The research is supported by the National Social Science Youth Fund under the project of " Gender Differences in Status Attainment and Career Mobility under the Perspective of Family" (17CRK024).

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摘要： 基于“上海都市社区调查”的数据，本文探究了本地户口如何调节教育对婚姻的推迟效应，以及该调节作用的性别差异。研究表明，教育程度越高的人，结婚越晚，女性在这一方面更明显。相比于拥有本地户口的人，教育对婚姻的推迟作用在未获得上海户口的人中更为突出。为呈现户口调节作用的时期变化，本文将改革分成四个时段。研究发现，本地户口的调节效应在改革初期并不明显，但随着改革的推进，教育对婚姻的推迟效应在没有上海户口的移民中日益显现。与外地移民相比，自2008年上海房价大幅度上涨之后，具有上海户口的高教育程度的男性非但婚姻不会推迟，反而会更早。可见，本地户口在形塑大城市男女的结婚时间上扮演着越来越重要的角色。

关键词: 教育, 本地户口, 初婚时间, 上海, 离散型事件史分析

Abstract: Across the globe, the higher the education level, the latter the marriage. However, in modern society, with the improvement in education and labor participation for both sexes, especially when the cost of living makes it difficult to support family by one income, the delaying effect of education level on marriage may have changed. This study suggests the possible moderating effect of local hukou(residential registration) as a symbol of financial advantage on the relation between education and marriage. Based on the data from the Shanghai Urban Neighborhood Survey, this paper attempts to answer three questions:1) Does a Shanghai hukou moderate the delaying effect of education on marriage timing? 2) If so, is there a gender difference of this moderation; 3) Does this moderation change overtime? The results of a discrete event history analysis show that the higher the education level, the more obvious its postponement effect on marriage, especially for women. Regardless of men and women, compared with individuals with Shanghai hukou, the delaying effect of education on marriage is much more prominent among people without Shanghai hukou. The study finds that at the early stage of the economic reform, there was no obvious moderation effect of a Shanghai hukou. However, with the continuous advancement of the reform, the postponement effect of education on marriage has become more and more prominent among groups without Shanghai hukou. Interestingly, the soaring price of housing since 2008 has led to a reversed relation between education and marriage timing among highly educated male Shanghai hukou holders. In comparison with their counter part of non-Shanghai hukou holders, not only no postponement but a certain early marriage effect is observed. The study concludes that the rapid rising cost of living and the widening gap in income and wealth have made hukou a primary factor in shaping marriage behaviors in contemporary urban China.

Key words: education, local hukou, first marriage timing, Shanghai, Discrete-time event history analysis